The Weather Guys are wrong - all the time.

So, if you did not know that the weather guys are wrong, here's statistics and a study to prove it. Including detailed analysis of different weather stations. Over at the Freakonomics Blog:

A seven-month study of weather forecasting at Kansas City television stations was conducted over 220 days, from April 22 to November 21, 2007. The seven-day forecasts for both high temperature and P.O.P. (probability of precipitation) for each station's 10 p.m. telecast and from the N.O.A.A. Web site were recorded. For stations that did not offer a P.O.P. in the form of percent likelihood, the best impression of percent likelihood that could be inferred from the meteorologists' words and graphics were used. The results of Kansas City's high temperature and rainfall as reported at the K.C.I. airport weather station — which are the data that become the official record for weather at Kansas City — were also recorded. Those results were then compared to the high temperature and P.O.P. predictions to determine forecasting accuracy for each source for each of the seven days predicted.

That is the methodology!

The results were quite enlightening, as were some of the comments of the local meteorologists and their station managers. Here a few of the quotes we received:

"We have no idea what's going to happen [in the weather] beyond three days out."

"There's not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring meteorologists. Presentation takes precedence over accuracy."

"All that viewers care about is the next day. Accuracy is not a big deal to viewers."

(emphasis, mine)

Accuracy does not matter??

When station managers were asked about this, one said, "There's not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring meteorologists. Presentation takes precedence over accuracy." And when discussing accuracy (or the lack thereof) of a seven-day forecast, another station manager stated, "All viewers care about is the next day. Accuracy is not a big deal to viewers."

Wow! We do not care about Accuracy! Yeah, right!

The graph above shows that stations get their precipitation predictions correct about 85 percent of the time one day out and decline to about 73 percent seven days out.

On the surface, that would not seem too bad. But consider that if a meteorologist always predicted that it would never rain, they would be right 86.3 percent of the time. So if a viewer was looking for more certainty than just assuming it will not rain, a successful meteorologist would have to be better than 86.3 percent. Three of the forecasters were about 87 percent at one day out — a hair over the threshold for success.

Other than that, no forecaster is ever better than just assuming it won't rain.

(emphasis, mine)

Read the full report

So, basically a 7-month study established that weather forecasters dont have a clue beyond 3 days - and even until then, have only a partial amount of accuracy..

But then, you already knew the weather guys are wrong, didnt you?